Wellington Future Trends
New Zealand · Oceania · Trend-based projections to 2050
This page projects Wellington's weather to 2030, 2040 and 2050, fitting one trend line per variable to its own 50-year ERA5 record. Around it sits a statistical range: temperature, tropical days and frost days get a Best and Worst scenario; precipitation and sunshine hours get a Low and High estimate instead, since more or less rain or sun isn't inherently better or worse. An R² score shows how closely the trend fits the record, so a lower R² means more year-to-year noise. Which variable in Wellington shifts hardest, and how firmly the record backs that line, is laid out per trajectory below.
Data through September 20, 2026.
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Frequently asked questions about Wellington's projected trends
How warm will Wellington be in 2050?
Extrapolated from Wellington's own record since 1976, the average daytime high in 2050 works out at roughly 15.8°C, up 0.3°C from 2025. This is a straight-line projection of measured weather data, not a climate model or a scenario-based forecast.
How certain is the temperature projection for Wellington?
The 2050 range runs from 15.4°C to 16.2°C. That spread comes from the 95% confidence interval on the trend line's own slope, so the noisier Wellington's record, the wider the band. The trend accounts for 43% of the variation between years; the rest is ordinary year-to-year swing.
How many days above 30°C will Wellington get in 2050?
The trend line lands on roughly 0 days above 30°C a year in 2050, against 0 in 2025. So no increase here, which means the warming in this city sits in the milder months rather than the summer peaks.
Will Wellington still get frost in 2050?
Wellington already recorded no frost days in 2025, and the trend line does not change that. Frost is not a useful measure here, though the heat figures above are.
Is Wellington getting wetter or drier by 2050?
The trend line lands on roughly 913mm of precipitation a year in 2050, against 930mm in 2025, so drier. An annual total says little about distribution though: the same rainfall can arrive in shorter, harder bursts, and that is what loads drains and water storage.
Will Wellington get more sunshine by 2050?
The trend line lands on roughly 3572 sunshine hours a year in 2050, against 3623 in 2025, so less sun. Sunshine hours bear directly on rooftop solar yield, though heat works against it at the same time: a panel loses efficiency at high temperatures.
