Ouagadougou Future Trends
Burkina Faso · Africa · Trend-based projections to 2050
This page projects Ouagadougou's weather to 2030, 2040 and 2050, fitting one trend line per variable to its own 50-year ERA5 record. Around it sits a statistical range: temperature, tropical days and frost days get a Best and Worst scenario; precipitation and sunshine hours get a Low and High estimate instead, since more or less rain or sun isn't inherently better or worse. An R² score shows how closely the trend fits the record, so a lower R² means more year-to-year noise. Which variable in Ouagadougou shifts hardest, and how firmly the record backs that line, is laid out per trajectory below.
Data through November 1, 2026.
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Frequently asked questions about Ouagadougou's projected trends
How warm will Ouagadougou be in 2050?
Extrapolated from Ouagadougou's own record since 1976, the average daytime high in 2050 works out at roughly 36.0°C, up 0.0°C from 2026. This is a straight-line projection of measured weather data, not a climate model or a scenario-based forecast.
How certain is the temperature projection for Ouagadougou?
The 2050 range runs from 35.6°C to 36.3°C. That spread comes from the 95% confidence interval on the trend line's own slope, so the noisier Ouagadougou's record, the wider the band. The trend accounts for 43% of the variation between years; the rest is ordinary year-to-year swing.
How many days above 30°C will Ouagadougou get in 2050?
The trend line lands on roughly 341 days above 30°C a year in 2050, against 298 in 2026. These are the days that set peak cooling demand, so this figure matters more for grid planning and building design than the annual average above.
Will Ouagadougou still get frost in 2050?
Ouagadougou already recorded no frost days in 2026, and the trend line does not change that. Frost is not a useful measure here, though the heat figures above are.
Is Ouagadougou getting wetter or drier by 2050?
The trend line lands on roughly 506mm of precipitation a year in 2050, against 533mm in 2026, so drier. An annual total says little about distribution though: the same rainfall can arrive in shorter, harder bursts, and that is what loads drains and water storage.
Will Ouagadougou get more sunshine by 2050?
The trend line lands on roughly 3956 sunshine hours a year in 2050, against 3356 in 2026, so more sun. Sunshine hours bear directly on rooftop solar yield, though heat works against it at the same time: a panel loses efficiency at high temperatures.
