Manila Future Trends
Philippines · Asia · Trend-based projections to 2050
This page projects Manila's weather to 2030, 2040 and 2050, fitting one trend line per variable to its own 50-year ERA5 record. Around it sits a statistical range: temperature, tropical days and frost days get a Best and Worst scenario; precipitation and sunshine hours get a Low and High estimate instead, since more or less rain or sun isn't inherently better or worse. An R² score shows how closely the trend fits the record, so a lower R² means more year-to-year noise. Which variable in Manila shifts hardest, and how firmly the record backs that line, is laid out per trajectory below.
Data through September 20, 2026.
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Frequently asked questions about Manila's projected trends
How warm will Manila be in 2050?
Extrapolated from Manila's own record since 1976, the average daytime high in 2050 works out at roughly 30.3°C, up 0.3°C from 2025. This is a straight-line projection of measured weather data, not a climate model or a scenario-based forecast.
How certain is the temperature projection for Manila?
The 2050 range runs from 29.9°C to 30.6°C. That spread comes from the 95% confidence interval on the trend line's own slope, so the noisier Manila's record, the wider the band. The trend accounts for 14% of the variation between years; the rest is ordinary year-to-year swing.
How many days above 30°C will Manila get in 2050?
The trend line lands on roughly 194 days above 30°C a year in 2050, against 137 in 2025. These are the days that set peak cooling demand, so this figure matters more for grid planning and building design than the annual average above.
Will Manila still get frost in 2050?
Manila already recorded no frost days in 2025, and the trend line does not change that. Frost is not a useful measure here, though the heat figures above are.
Is Manila getting wetter or drier by 2050?
The trend line lands on roughly 1858mm of precipitation a year in 2050, against 2214mm in 2025, so drier. An annual total says little about distribution though: the same rainfall can arrive in shorter, harder bursts, and that is what loads drains and water storage.
Will Manila get more sunshine by 2050?
The trend line lands on roughly 3462 sunshine hours a year in 2050, against 3298 in 2025, so more sun. Sunshine hours bear directly on rooftop solar yield, though heat works against it at the same time: a panel loses efficiency at high temperatures.
