Wellington Future Trends
New Zealand · Oceania · Trend-based projections to 2050
This page uses Wellington's own 50 year weather record to project one trend line forward to 2030, 2040 and 2050, with a Best and Worst scenario range built from the trend's own statistical uncertainty. For where that trend has already gone, see the Climate Capitals Trends, or for current and historical day-to-day weather, see Meteo Capital Cities. See how this trend ranks against every other world capital on the Climate Shift Index.Compare its projection against all 195 world capitals on the full interactive map.
Data through August 4, 2026.
Frequently asked questions about Wellington's projected trends
How warm will Wellington be in 2050?
Extrapolated from Wellington's own record since 1976, the average daytime high in 2050 works out at roughly 16.5°C, up 0.4°C from 2025. This is a straight-line projection of measured weather data, not a climate model or a scenario-based forecast.
How certain is the temperature projection for Wellington?
The 2050 range runs from 16.0°C to 16.9°C. That spread comes from the 95% confidence interval on the trend line's own slope, so the noisier Wellington's record, the wider the band. The trend accounts for 53% of the variation between years; the rest is ordinary year-to-year swing.
How many days above 30°C will Wellington get in 2050?
The trend line lands on roughly 0 days above 30°C a year in 2050, against 0 in 2025. So no increase here, which means the warming in this city sits in the milder months rather than the summer peaks.
Will Wellington still get frost in 2050?
Wellington already recorded no frost days in 2025, and the trend line does not change that. Frost is not a useful measure here, though the heat figures above are.
Is Wellington getting wetter or drier by 2050?
The trend line lands on roughly 1035mm of precipitation a year in 2050, against 1063mm in 2025, so drier. An annual total says little about distribution though: the same rainfall can arrive in shorter, harder bursts, and that is what loads drains and water storage.
Will Wellington get more sunshine by 2050?
The trend line lands on roughly 3276 sunshine hours a year in 2050, against 3250 in 2025, so more sun. Sunshine hours bear directly on rooftop solar yield, though heat works against it at the same time: a panel loses efficiency at high temperatures.
